What will Tesla be worth in 2035? Here’s a valuation calculator.
Estimated share price in 2035—
—the share costs today—estimated in 2030
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Defaults based on Tesla executing its currently announced plans. Adjust to what you think Tesla will do in 2035. The calculator will pop out an estimated stock price. Further submetrics can be adjusted further down this page.
P/E today: 352x its last twelve months
Keep this version. One e-mail, one link, no password.
✨ Where the defaults come from
Reported figures are read out of TSLA’s quarterly updates, 28 quarters from Q3-19, with FY data back to FY16.
3MVehicle production/yearTTM deliveries 1.75m through Q2-26.
1MRobot production/yearFremont guided to 1m/yr, Austin announced at 10m/yr.
12MCybercab rides per dayUber’s US daily rides.
20Rides per car per dayWaymo runs 15 to 25 per vehicle per day.
$1.00Revenue a mileA buck a mile. Uber and Lyft near $2.50/mi.
4 miAverage ride lengthWaymo, Uber and Lyft sit around 4 miles, 3 to 5 by location.
15%FSD take rate1.48m subs on a 9.7m parc at Q2-26. US list $99/mo.
100 GWhStorage deployed/yearTTM 49.0 GWh through Q2-26.
60xP/E ratioTSLA trades at 349x TTM earnings.
14.5%Operating costsOpex $15.2bn on $103.6bn revenue, TTM.
0%Adjust up or downThe model should speak for itself first.
0%Elon timeAt 33%, what the model puts in FY35 lands in FY38.
Vehicles and services
This is the vehicles part of Tesla as it earns money today: cars, supercharging, servicing, and parts that come with them.
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Vehicles delivered per year
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
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Delivered
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
Deliveries move both lines, because servicing, parts and supercharging grow with the number of cars on the road. The multiple starts at 20 and walks down to 12, which is where car makers trade once they have stopped growing.
Optimus
Tesla is building Optimus at the decommissioned Model S and X lines at Fremont. It promises a production of 1 million/year there. Tesla announced an Optimus line in Austin, Texas for 10 million/year, and is currently building that factory. But the CAPEX here is high, so returns will take a while.
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The business is worth
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
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Robots built
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
Three things decide almost everything here: how many get built, what one costs to make, and how many owners keep paying for the software. The hardware margin is negative until the build cost drops below the selling price, which in this model happens in 2030.
Cybercab
What is on the record as of September 2026: the Cybercab entered production at Gigafactory Texas, robotaxi service runs in seven metropolitan areas, Texas records list 45 Cybercabs and 269 Model Y registered for robotaxi use, and the first paying Cybercab rides ran in Austin. 12 million rides is what Uber does in the USA in 2026.
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The business is worth
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
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Fleet
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
The costs are the part most published robotaxi tables leave out. This one charges energy and maintenance on every driven mile including the empty ones, insurance, remote support and depot costs per car per year, payment fees on revenue, and writes the car off over five years. Cars owned by other people are counted separately, at a 25 percent take rate.
FSD
Tesla gave 1.48 million active subscriptions at 2026 Q2, against roughly 9.7 million cars delivered in total. That is a take rate of about 15 percent, and it is the number every FSD argument is really about.
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The business is worth
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
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Paying
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
Licensing to other manufacturers is in the revenue line as well, at the model's own schedule. No deal has been signed, so that part is pure option value and the sliders do not touch it.
Energy storage
Tesla deployed 3.0 GWh of storage in 2020 and 46.7 GWh in 2025, a fifteen-fold increase in five years. That is the solid half of the chart above. The hatched half is what happens next, and nobody outside Tesla knows.
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The business is worth
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
Year
Deployed
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
Revenue per kWh has been falling the whole time and this model keeps it falling, because cells get cheaper and the contracts get bigger. Margin is the opposite bet: it has been climbing, and the model has it settling at 30 percent.
Everything else
Adjust for calamities, wars, pandemics, supply chain disruptions, CEO troubles, broken promises, or other disasters. (Also works for optimists.)
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The whole model, not just this page
This page moves one business at a time. The sheet holds all six at once, with every reported quarter since 2020 underneath them, and it runs to 2040 where this page stops at 2035.
The reported figures are read out of Tesla's own quarterly updates, 24 of them, covering 2020 Q3 to 2026 Q2. Everything drawn hatched is this model's assumption and nothing else. Every slider starts on the model's own number.
Operating expenses are spread over the six businesses in proportion to gross profit, so a business valued here and the same business in the spreadsheet come out the same. Tax is 20 per cent. Source: Tesla investor relations. Not investment advice.