What will Tesla be worth in 2035? Here’s a valuation calculator.
Estimated share price in 2035—
—the share costs today—estimated in 2030
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GWh
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Defaults based on Tesla executing its currently announced plans. Adjust to what you think Tesla will do in 2035. The calculator will pop out an estimated stock price. Further submetrics can be adjusted further down this page.
P/E today: 352x its last twelve months
Keep this version. One e-mail, one link, no password.
✨ Where the defaults come from
Reported figures are read out of TSLA’s quarterly updates, 28 quarters from Q3-19, with FY data back to FY16.
3MVehicle production/yearTTM deliveries 1.75m through Q2-26.
1MRobot production/yearFremont guided to 1m/yr, Austin announced at 10m/yr.
12MCybercab rides per dayUber’s US daily rides.
20Rides per car per dayWaymo runs 15 to 25 per vehicle per day.
$1.00Revenue a mileA buck a mile. Uber and Lyft near $2.50/mi.
4 miAverage ride lengthWaymo, Uber and Lyft sit around 4 miles, 3 to 5 by location.
15%FSD take rate1.48m subs on a 9.7m parc at Q2-26. US list $99/mo.
100 GWhStorage deployed/yearTTM 49.0 GWh through Q2-26.
60xP/E ratioTSLA trades at 349x TTM earnings.
14.5%Operating costsOpex $15.2bn on $103.6bn revenue, TTM.
0%Adjust up or downThe model should speak for itself first.
0%Elon timeAt 33%, what the model puts in FY35 lands in FY38.
Vehicles and services
This is the vehicles part of Tesla as it earns money today: cars, supercharging, servicing, and parts that come with them.
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Vehicles delivered per year
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
Year
Delivered
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
Deliveries move both lines, because servicing, parts and supercharging grow with the number of cars on the road. The multiple starts at 20 and walks down to 12, which is where car makers trade once they have stopped growing.
Optimus
Tesla is building Optimus at the decommissioned Model S and X lines at Fremont. It promises a production of 1 million/year there. Tesla announced an Optimus line in Austin, Texas for 10 million/year, and is currently building that factory. But the CAPEX here is high, so returns will take a while.
M
$
$
$
The business is worth
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
Year
Robots built
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
Three things decide almost everything here: how many get built, what one costs to make, and how many owners keep paying for the software. The hardware margin is negative until the build cost drops below the selling price, which in this model happens in 2030.
Cybercab
What is on the record as of September 2026: the Cybercab entered production at Gigafactory Texas, robotaxi service runs in seven metropolitan areas, Texas records list 45 Cybercabs and 269 Model Y registered for robotaxi use, and the first paying Cybercab rides ran in Austin. 12 million rides is what Uber does in the USA in 2026.
M
$
mi
The business is worth
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
Year
Fleet
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
The costs are the part most published robotaxi tables leave out. This one charges energy and maintenance on every driven mile including the empty ones, insurance, remote support and depot costs per car per year, payment fees on revenue, and writes the car off over five years. Cars owned by other people are counted separately, at a 25 percent take rate.
FSD
Tesla gave 1.48 million active subscriptions at 2026 Q2, against roughly 9.7 million cars delivered in total. That is a take rate of about 15 percent, and it is the number every FSD argument is really about.
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$
%
The business is worth
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
Year
Paying
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
Licensing to other manufacturers is in the revenue line as well, at the model's own schedule. No deal has been signed, so that part is pure option value and the sliders do not touch it.
Energy storage
Tesla deployed 3.0 GWh of storage in 2020 and 46.7 GWh in 2025, a fifteen-fold increase in five years. That is the solid half of the chart above. The hatched half is what happens next, and nobody outside Tesla knows.
GWh
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%
The business is worth
Revenue in 2035—what it takes in
Gross profit—before operating expenses
After-tax profit—its share of group spending removed
The business is worth—profit times the multiple
Year by year
Year
Deployed
Revenue
Gross profit
Business worth
Per share
Revenue per kWh has been falling the whole time and this model keeps it falling, because cells get cheaper and the contracts get bigger. Margin is the opposite bet: it has been climbing, and the model has it settling at 30 percent.
Everything else
Adjust for calamities, wars, pandemics, supply chain disruptions, CEO troubles, broken promises, or other disasters. (Also works for optimists.)
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Revenue
Revenue, margins, deliveries and energy storage for every quarter since 2019, read straight out of the filings. Where the money comes from, split three ways.
AutomotiveEnergyServices and otherYour model, to 2035
Quarter by quarter
Quarter
Automotive
Energy
Services
Total
24 Q3
20 016
2 376
2 790
25 182
24 Q4
19 798
3 061
2 848
25 707
25 Q1
13 967
2 730
2 638
19 335
25 Q2
16 661
2 789
3 046
22 496
25 Q3
21 205
3 415
3 475
28 095
25 Q4
17 693
3 837
3 371
24 901
26 Q1
16 234
2 408
3 745
22 387
26 Q2
20 516
3 139
4 581
28 236
Profitability
Margins rise and fall through different market conditions. Think resource costs, supply chain issues, dips in demand.
Gross margin
Operating margin
Quarter by quarter
Quarter
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net income $m
24 Q3
19.8%
10.8%
2 173
24 Q4
16.3%
6.2%
2 128
25 Q1
16.3%
2.1%
409
25 Q2
17.2%
4.1%
1 172
25 Q3
18.0%
5.8%
1 373
25 Q4
20.1%
5.7%
840
26 Q1
21.1%
4.2%
477
26 Q2
16.8%
1.4%
1 114
Register to keep your settings
Your version of the model, saved, so you can come back to it and change your mind. It also opens the spreadsheet underneath this page: six businesses, every reported quarter since 2020, and the horizon out to 2040. One e-mail, one link, no password.
You are in. Make a copy of the sheet before you change anything, so the numbers stay yours.
Want to keep more than three versions and hear when Tesla reports? See what Pro adds.
Vehicles
Deliveries, production, and what a car sold for on average.
Quarter by quarter
Quarter
Delivered
Produced
Average selling price
24 Q3
462 890
469 796
$40 681
24 Q4
495 570
459 445
$37 652
25 Q1
336 681
362 615
$38 389
25 Q2
384 122
410 244
$41 099
25 Q3
497 099
447 450
$40 956
25 Q4
418 227
434 358
$40 050
26 Q1
358 023
408 386
$43 218
26 Q2
480 126
451 758
$41 668
Energy
Storage deployed, the revenue it brought in, and the margin on it.
Quarter by quarter
Quarter
Storage GWh
Revenue $m
Gross margin
24 Q3
6.9
2 376
30.5%
24 Q4
11.0
3 061
25.2%
25 Q1
10.4
2 730
28.8%
25 Q2
9.6
2 789
30.3%
25 Q3
12.5
3 415
31.4%
25 Q4
14.2
3 837
28.6%
26 Q1
8.8
2 408
39.5%
26 Q2
13.5
3 139
20.4%
Robotaxi
The part everybody argues about, and the part with no numbers in it.
Tesla reports no robotaxi revenue, so this page shows none. What is on the record as of September 2026: the Cybercab entered production at Gigafactory Texas, robotaxi service runs in seven metropolitan areas, and Texas records list 45 Cybercabs and 269 Model Y registered for robotaxi use. The first paying Cybercab rides ran in Austin in September 2026.
Everything beyond those four facts is a forecast, which is exactly what the free sheet is for. The fleet size you assume is the single number the whole valuation hangs on.
Other
Services, supercharging, parts and the rest of the business.
Quarter by quarter
Quarter
Services revenue $m
Supercharger stations
Connectors
24 Q3
2 790
6 706
62 421
24 Q4
2 848
6 975
65 495
25 Q1
2 638
7 131
67 316
25 Q2
3 046
7 377
70 228
25 Q3
3 475
7 753
73 817
25 Q4
3 371
8 182
77 682
26 Q1
3 745
8 463
79 918
26 Q2
4 581
8 704
82 357
Ten years
The whole company, by financial year. The model above is yours to copy and disagree with.
Year by year
Year
Revenue $m
Gross profit $m
Operating profit $m
Net income $m
Free cash flow $m
2016
7 000
1 599
—
-675
-1 405
2017
11 759
2 223
—
-1 962
-3 476
2018
21 461
4 042
—
-976
-3
2019
24 578
4 069
—
-862
1 078
2020
31 536
6 630
1 994
721
2 786
2021
53 823
13 606
6 523
5 519
4 983
2022
81 462
20 853
13 656
12 556
7 561
2023
96 773
17 660
8 891
14 997
4 357
2024
97 690
17 450
7 076
7 091
3 581
2025
94 827
17 094
4 355
3 794
6 220
Where these numbers come from
The basis for the historical numbers is a an LLM-scan of all quarterly reports published by Tesla, starting 2016. Creator of this website has been a Tesla-investor since 2012. (And a bit more wary in recent years.)
Years currently covered are 2020 Q3 to 2026 Q2. Each report restates the four quarters before it, so most quarters are read from several reports and compared; where two disagree, the newest wins.
Considering the modal for projections, this is a merge of my own older model, inspiration of good ideas from different analysts for the latest developments, and some extra research with different LLMs.
Real actual human here to keep guard. Her are some typos so you know izza reel hooman here lkvdfsfvbdl.
Revenue$28 236 min 2026 Q2
Revenue, trailing year$103.6 bnlast four quarters
Gross margin16.8%$4 751 m gross profit
Operating margin1.4%$398 m operating profit
Net income$1 114 m$3 804 m trailing year
Earnings per share$0.323 540 m diluted shares
Vehicles delivered480 126in the quarter
Energy storage13.5 GWhdeployed in the quarter
Free cash flow-$1 092 moperating cash flow minus capex
Tesla and its CEO have shown to pivot not out of necessity but out of choice. Any of the predictions that are made by any model on these pages should take the increased unpredictability of its CEO in consideration. As Tesla has partly pivoted from their goal to accelerate the world towards sustainable energy, its financial footing for the future will most likely be its seemingly unprecedented advantage in real-world AI. Full self-driving, unsupervised, whether you’re a robot on wheels or feet. That’s where Tesla is headed. It’s possible it will still do an energy play and do some R&D on lithium refining, but for now we should wait until well into 2028 to have more of a sense of where the future of Tesla is going.